Though a recession hasn't been officially declared yet, the inverted yield curve has preceded previous recessions by about 18 months, according to Altman, as was the case for the downturns beginning in 1989 and 2006. Evercore's trucking survey
And though more bullish commentators have argued that current inflationary pressures have been fueled by the pandemic and are, that doesn't lessen the possibility of recession over the short-term, Altman said. Neither does the strong performance in stocks, which are at this point unlikely to price in bad economic news coming by the end of the year.
Experts have been warning of heightened recession risks for the past year as the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation. Rates are now at their highest range since 2007 – a level that could easily overtighten the economy into recession, especially since the full tightening effect of rate hikes takes months to fully show up in the economy.