From Putin to pandemics, here’s what could upend Canada’s mortgage market

Almost every interest-rate pundit expects lower mortgage rates next year, this one included. But when market participants all agree, that’s when you’ve got to be suspicious.

The bond market implies that by the end of next year, the Bank of Canada’s key rate will be at least 25 basis points lower, according to forward rate data provided by CanDeal DNA. After this, markets imply a 150-basis-point decline over the next couple of years, for whatever that’s worth. Core inflation is going sideways and, “The longer the underlying trend remains too high, the harder it can be to bring inflation down,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech on Thursday. When people see inflation going the wrong way, they buy more products and services sooner, which pushes inflation even higher. Businesses react to higher costs – and expectations of higher costs – and also jack their prices.

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