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Another reason that’s not often written about is that the People's Bank of China has been somewhat quietly supporting the local equity market, buying up shares as if taking a cue from their colleagues at the Bank of Japan. Tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports are not moving from 10% to 25% as scheduled to happen on March 1. Both sides agreed to extend the 90-day trade truce agreed upon in November at the G-20 Summit in Buenos Aires. It also appears certain that Trump’s early threat to tariff all imports from China is off the table.
China earnings season has begun. Investors will be looking for signs of wear and tear from external and internal forces. Is the trade war hurting the bottom line or is China’s economy slowing more than we thought? Some firms might be hurt by both issues. Based on interviews with global portfolio managers and senior economists from major investment banks, the consensus view holds that the trade war won't end, but that the tariff war will—and that's good enough. Taking tariffs off the table is a risky political move for Trump. Tariffs brought China to discuss age-old concerns like subsidies.
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