The market could be setting itself up for a letdown from Wednesday's Fed decision

With investors over the past several months aggressively pricing in a friendly Federal Reserve, it seems the only thing the central bank could do at its meeting that wraps up Wednesday is disappoint.

"Markets could be very disappointed to see more hikes on the horizon," Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis, said in a note to clients."If the Fed does not confirm these expectations, a renewed bout of market turbulence could begin." It's been a different story since central bank officials changed their rhetoric to start the year, and major averages all are up at least 11 percent.Despite FOMC forecasts that still point to two more rate increases, the market is pricing in no chance of a rate hike by the end of the year, and in fact is indicating a nearly 30 percent probability of a cut, according to the CME"s tracker of fed funds futures trading.

Indeed, the dot math is going to be difficult to get the median dot to zero hikes and even more so to a cut.

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