An inverted yield curve does not an immediate stock-market inferno make. And Tony Dwyer, chief U.S. markets strategist for Canaccord Genuity, is urging investors to view a yield curve inversion as an opportunity rather than a death knell.
The spread between the two-year TMUBMUSD02Y, +1.10% and 10-year yields, another closely followed gauge, is also narrowing although it has yet to invert.“Even if the YC inverts tomorrow, over the past seven economic cycles, the median SPX gain from the initial inversion to the cycle peak is 21%, with a recession a median 19 months after the initial inversion,” said Dwyer.
“The history of our favored credit metrics and what follows the inversion of the YC still suggests any weakness should prove limited and temporary,” said the noted bull. DeGraaf also believes an inversion is likely a red flag that something could go wrong and while it may take a while for things to unravel, history suggests the situation requires “respect.”
Nothing to see here folks.
Summer of 2020's the drop. Keep sailing until then.
Price always seeks yield but also be aware of divergence. The Big Boys love manipulating price to fool retail
You gotta have something if TheDemocrats wanna impeach ImpeachTrump
It means there is a relatively smedium correlation to recession in the next 26 months and is not an actual indicator of anything.
So it’s different this time? But it’s been 100% accurate as a leading indicator in the past. So these experts and bank fool regular investors to stay in while they sell.... who gets screwed here?