Bond yields are crashing in major markets all around the world as fears of a global economic slowdown have prompted investors to seek shelter in low-risk government debt. Both Germany and Japan’s 10-year bond yields are back below zero, marking the first time we’ve seen German yields turn negative since October 2016. As I shared with you last week, the pool of negative-yielding bonds around the globe now stands at a Germany and Japan's 10-Year Bond Yields Are Back Below ZeroHere in the U.S.
One of the best defensive positions, I believe, is gold bullion and gold mining stocks, which in the past have traded inversely to yields. When yields have risen, indicating less demand for a safe haven, gold prices have sunk. And when yields have fallen, indicating a risk-off sentiment, gold prices have climbed.
Take a look below. What the chart shows is the inverse relationship between gold mining stocks and the real 10-year Treasury yield—“real” meaning inflation-adjusted. As you can see, gold stocks soared in the summer of 2016 as yields deteriorated and finally dipped below zero.Today, yields are similarly on a downward path, boosting gold stocks. Year-to-date through March 26, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is up more than 10 percent.
This is why I always recommend a 10 percent weighting in gold, with 5 percent in physical gold and the other 5 percent in high-quality gold mining stocks and funds. I like to call this the 10 Percent Golden Rule, and in the past, it’s helped investors stanch some of the losses they’ve experienced during economic pullbacks and equity bear markets.
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