Outlook We get inflation from the UK, Canada, and Japan, possibly shifting central bank outlooks. Australia holds an RBA meeting. The Fed releases FOMC minutes on Wednesday. And we get a slew of PMI’s on Thursday. Europe is expected to do better than the US. The US S&P manufacturing flash for May on Thursday is expected at 49.9 from 50.0 in April, ho hum. Services is forecast up 51.4, leaving the composite unchanged at 51.3.
In comparison to May 2023’s budget outlook, deficits are projected to be a cumulative $1.4 trillion less over FY2024-2033.” Mish reports “The key points are the Fed assumes no recessions and the Fed assumes no matter what Congress does that it will hold inflation to two percent over the long term. In other words, the Fed assumes that it is in control when history suggests that it isn’t. The Fed has never forecast a recession, nor has the Fed spotted one in real time.
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