For those who have followed my stock market analysis through the years, you would likely remember that, many years ago, I set a minimum long-term target for theat 5350, with potential to rally as high as 6000SPX. In fact, many of you may also remember my expectation for a 30% correction, which I was publishing in late 2019 and early 2020, well before anyone even heard the word Covid.
You see, markets are rather simple when you break it down to its core driver. When people get too bearish and sentiment hits a negative extreme, then everyone who has wanted to sell has sold, and there is only one direction left for the market to take. The same applies when the market gets too bullish. And, that is basically what Mr. Livermore's second quote is saying.
We saw it back in late 2019 and early 2020 as the market was topping at an extreme in bullish sentiment, we saw it at the bottom of the Covid Crash when the market was striking an extreme in bearish sentiment, we saw it again in October of 2022 when we called for the bottom at 3500SPX at another extreme in market sentiment, and I think we are now approaching another inflection point as we approach my long-term minimum target for the SPX in the 5350SPX region.
Now, I know that many are still viewing the market as having much higher to rally for various fundamental reasons. And, they could be right. Yet, consider we hear these same fundamental reasoning at major market highs and lows, as people can always find reasons as to why the market will continue linearly within its current trend. As Ben Franklin once astutely noted:
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