After megabanks post record quarterly profit, industry has nowhere to go but down

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Investors' biggest fear about the finance industry – that if the Federal Reserve really is done raising rates for the foreseeable future, banks' main profit-making engine will sputter – is becoming apparent.

The two biggest U.S. banks each just posted record first-quarter profit, the result of years of work building coast-to-coast franchises that have attracted billions in customer deposits.

Bank of America just posted more quarterly profit than at any time in its history this week, but analyst Matthew O'Connor was worried about what next year looks like. The bank's CFO warned that growth in net interest income would slow by half to 3 percent this year, below some analysts' estimates. But last month the Fed indicated it would hold off on raising rates this year amid slowing economic growth around the world. That sent yields on longer term debt down, even inverting segments of the so-called yield curve, impacting banks' net interest income.

The NII outlook is a dark cloud on an otherwise strong quarter for banks' Main Street lending operations. J.P. Morgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, beat analysts' expectations on strength in its retail banking division, where profit surged 19 percent to $3.96 billion.

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