It looks like the market is finally going to get what it has wanted for over a year—that the labor market was on much weaker footing than previously thought. Economists had forecast a cooling of demand for workers to bring monthly payroll growth down to 180,000. Instead, thePerhaps even more importantly, the unemployment rate unexpectedly surged higher. Defying expectations for the rate to match the prior month’s 4.1 percent, it jumped to 4.3 percent.
. The big difference among Fed officials appeared to be that some would have preferred to cut earlier than others, reflecting different views of the risks to employment and inflation. Powell, at his press conference on Wednesday, seemed to clearly lean toward a preference to cutting in September—so long as the data could plausibly justify a cut.. As a result, we think it locks in a September rate cut.
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