Market Factors: Top performing TSX sector has more room to run

In this edition we‘ll discuss the huge rally in gold miners - a topic I remain cautious on - and also provide Citi’s top U.S. stock picks for the muddled market backdrop. For the diversion, an interesting argument that refrigeration is, while maybe not completely ruining our food, significantly reducing its quality.Four out of the top five performing S&P/TSX Composite stocks are gold miners. The numbers are big, too – top two performers Iamgold Corp. and Lundin Gold are up 152.7 and 116.

Gold stock performance relative to the TSX has yet to peak, according to reason No. 2 for why the gold sector has further to run. Previous gold bull markets have seen the TSX gold sector outperforming the broader benchmark by two standard deviations. That’s 50-60 per cent based on current conditions and that hasn’t happened yet – the gold TSX subindex is only 15 per cent higher than the broader benchmark.

The last reason is the Federal Reserve. The clear direction of U.S. interest rates is lower, which will weaken the U.S. dollar, all else being equal. A lower dollar means higher gold prices in greenback terms., but I remain agnostic about its value in the modern economy. I certainly respect gold’s history as currency and as a limiting factor for government profligacy. But as Warren Buffett frequently mentions, it just sits there, not producing cash flow.

Mr. Chronert’s solution for clients is to emphasize companies with higher profitability as measured by return on equity ratios. These have historically shown low correlation to macroeconomic variables like bond yield spreads or crude prices.

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