LONDON - Global stocks will continue their march to higher ground but an escalation of the U.S.-China trade war poses the biggest risk, Reuters polls of over 200 equity strategists, analysts and fund managers from around the world found.
“The trade war is the primary issue, with recent softness in U.S. macro - where resilience had been accepted wisdom - a product of the uncertainty it is creating,” said Robert Griffiths, global equity strategist at Credit Suisse. In second place, with 22% of economists picking it, was a worse-than expected slowdown in U.S. economic growth. In third spot was the 17% who said a slowdown or stall in corporate earnings growth.U.S. stocks will build on this year’s already strong gains over the rest of 2019 and the benchmark S&P 500 index will finish 2019 at 2,925, up about up about 3.5% from last week’s close.
European shares are seen mostly moving sideways until end-2019 and making just modest gains later on, as investors refrain from big bets on a region whose export-oriented economy makes it vulnerable to trade war risks.
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