Easing headwinds for business, strong labor markets, and improved consumer health are hallmarks of the first administration.
As surprising as it may be, Donald Trump won a second term in office. One of few to do so non-consecutively, his 2nd term has long-lasting repercussions for the market. If history is to be used as a guide, those repercussions will be good for stocks.starting the week of November 16th, 2016, just after his first victory, through the results of elections in 2020, investors stand to win big.
Today's labor data is down significantly from 2022 to 2023, but the decline is relative. The peaks in 2022 and 2023 were driven by the COVID-rebound and stimulus spending, normalizing to align with the healthy levels in late 2019 and early 2020. The new Trump administration will likely support labor market health and help it to sustain growth for the next four years.There is FOMC and inflation risk, but it is out of his control.
The outlook for the S&P 500 is to reach 6,000 by the end of the year. The market is trending higher on momentum, earnings growth, and the expectation for easing interest rate pressure, and the uptrend can be sustained indefinitely in this scenario because of capital returns. The S&P 500 is on track to pay over $600 billion in dividends next year, up roughly 5% from 2024, and is expected to sustain the pace of growth, if not accelerate it, each year under Trump.
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