The longer term 2024 forecast proved less accurate than we’d hoped, as we optimistically — but falsely — predicted government interventions would be helpful through the year. (Instead, they proved quite the opposite.) As 2024 comes to an end, we are looking back at all that happened, and ahead to what's on the horizon.. Having come off of a strong(ish) Q4 in 2023 with positive signs ahead, we certainly got some things right.
But the longer-term forecast was less accurate than we’d hoped, as we optimistically — but falsely — predicted government interventions would be helpful through 2024. (Instead, they proved quite the opposite.) We predicted that activity would pick up some in Q1, starting with a slow build as governments enacted new housing policy, rates came down, and immigration continued. Q1steady for sales and launches and, despite rate drops lagging till June (as opposed to the April timeline we had predicted), developers released the most inventory in Q2, albeit to softer demand than anticipated.With rate cuts missing the spring market and landing right before summer started, still-hurting buyers adopted a wait-and-see response, setting their sites to the fall. As predicted, all levels of government got in the game, but — as we’d soon find out — the results were more negative than positive. A typical tale included a swing towards some much-needed change, which would only be backhanded by an equal or greater policy setback, all while tax increases (rather than decreases) were tabled. An example from the west coast was as follows: The Provincial government updated the building code to allow for single staircases in low-rise buildings to help with efficiency, only to thereafter introduce accessibility requirements on 100% of units — requirements that would stop developments in their tracks due to their enormous cost and size implication
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