Rising Global Recession Odds Signal More Credit And Market Risks For Financial Institutions

, had the 10-year German bund yielding less than a 3-month Germany treasury.

The rising odds of a global recession means that risk managers need to do more to measure their credit, market, operational, and liquidity risks in order to recalibrate their risk models. The model results should lead risk managers to focus on what assets to sell to reduce risks, enhancing internal controls, and likely changing derivatives positions that mitigate credit and market risks.

What should worry risk managers is that we are in unchartered territory. According to Sven Henrich, founder and lead market strategist for NorthmanTrader, “We’ve never faced a recession with so much debt and so little Fed ammunition available.” I agree with him that “With negative rates still in effect in many places, there’s no playbook for this. Historical data will be of little use.

The rising odds of a recession also means that financial institutions should increase their capital buffers to help them sustain unexpected losses. Banks, pension funds, and insurance companies have regulatory or legal requirements that will make them more attune capital deteriorating; non-banks tend to have lighter requirements so they could present a bigger challenge to the safety and soundness of the financial system.

EpochTimes RandallLane

Yeah because stocks are always a solid indicator of how an economy is doing... yeah so can't even say that with sarcasm anymore.

One problem is estimating the timing of a recession. In previous examples of inversion, a recession was anywhere from 5 mos to 22 mos n2 the future. Or different conditions around central bank than in ‘08 could’ve distorted the yield curve. Either way, timing mkts is never easy.

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Growth forecasts are rising and the economy looks nowhere near as bad as the bond market predictsBy any number of measures, the U.S. economy is outshining the depressed picture the bond market has been painting of U.S. growth, and a big part of it is the resilient American consumer. Consumers may be spending, but if that spending comes in the form of new debt, especially credit card debt, that could portend problems down the road. Especially when rates go up again. I don’t believe you’re forthcoming with the truth. Have central banks (cbs) normalized their balance sheets after 2008? No, they’re holding more debt. Don’t think they can handle another crisis or recession.
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