What to watch as fourth-quarter earnings kick into high gear

NEW YORK - U.S. corporate reporting season is expected to show lackluster profit growth, and it has already gotten off to a bumpy start, with big banks kicking off the fourth quarter to mixed investor reaction so far on the stock market.

“Q4 is probably the last quarter where the market kind of gives a pass to earnings,” said Dave Lafferty, chief market strategist at Natixis Investment Managers in Boston. Many investors say they are more focused on corporate outlooks, with stronger 2020 profit growth needed to help justify big gains in the stock market. As of Wednesday, consensus analyst estimates called for a nearly 10% rise in earnings this year, according to Refinitiv.

The S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio has climbed from roughly 14 times to start 2019 to about 18 times by the end, an increase that investors attributed largely to interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

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