Will Fed rate hike be a 'clearing event' for battered U.S. stock market? What investors are watching for on Wednesday

A little clarity from the Federal Reserve on the likely size and scope of future rate increases on Wednesday could be a balm for a bruised U.S. stock market, according to some analysts.

The meeting could set up as “yet another ‘clearing event,'” said Sherif Hamid, a strategist at Jefferies, in a note last week. The large-cap benchmark closed at its lowest since May 19 of last year, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA fell to its lowest close since March 14. The tech- and growth-oriented Nasdaq Composite COMP , already in a bear market, ended Friday at its lowest since Nov. 30, 2020.

If that scenario materializes, it “should not cause new selling in stocks simply because this is already priced into the S&P 500 at current levels,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note. “Depending on other news, we could see a mild relief rally in the S&P 500 but I wouldn’t expect anything substantial unless there’s other good news on Ukraine or China lockdowns.”

They said the S&P 500 could fall as low as 3,460, the 200-week moving average, if forward 12-month earnings per share start to fall on margin and/or recession concerns.

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