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Breakingviews - IAG’s business-travel bullishness has hard landing

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Poor old International Airlines Group . Just when it thought the pandemic was disappearing, the British Airways owner is flying into a potential recession in its key UK market. Even though Omicron delivered a grim first-quarter operating loss before exceptional items of 754 million euros, Chief Executive Luis Gallego said a strong recovery, particularly in business and premium leisure travel, would put the company in the black for the year. Still, dark clouds overshadow his optimism. An 8% fall in IAG shares on Friday morning means the stock is 70% below its pre-Covid-19 levels.

before exceptional items of 754 million euros, Chief Executive Luis Gallego said a strong recovery, particularly in business and premium leisure travel, would put the company in the black for the year. Still, dark clouds overshadow his optimism. An 8% fall in IAG shares on Friday morning means the stock is 70% below its pre-Covid-19 levels.

Gallego reckons the 7 billion pound group will have restored 90% of its pre-pandemic schedule by September. Average seat prices are also climbing – revenue for every passenger kilometre flown rose 12% compared to a year ago, thanks to well-heeled flyers. But in addition to high jet fuel prices, IAG now has to contend with a sharp slowdown in the UK economy. Business travel budgets are likely to be on shaky ground.

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