Rising interest costs and a significant increase in yields from long-dated bonds have prompted JP Morgan to cut valuations overall for the listed property sector by 6 per cent.
Based on a review of 20 years of data, the analysts found that real estate capitalisation or “cap” rates – an industry metric akin to an investment yield – are strongly correlated with real bond yields over the medium term. “In contrast, there is a much more volatile relationship between nominal bond yields and cap rates which suggests that nominal yields are of secondary importance.”After the recent spike in long bond yields, office and retail spreads are at the lower end of the band and now below 4 per cent for industrial property, which includes warehouses and logistics facilities.
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Has the interest rate rise broken Australia’s housing market fever?Prices remain high, but the days of frenzied auction bidding may be numbered with the recent interest rate hike and a slowing market Doubtful. Only thing that will break it is changing negative gearing forcing investors with 3+ houses to sell them. Otherwise its businesses as usual
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