Investors are casting judgment as they fret that the race to make up for past forecasting errors raises the risk of recessions. Global stocks have entered a bear market, US Treasury yields on Monday posted their biggest two-day jump since the 1980s and credit markets are showing signs of increasing stress.
Policy makers until recently highlighted that long-term inflation expectations were contained – a testament to their credibility. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans explained in March that current-day inflation wasn’t like the 1980s because “overly accommodative monetary policy” in the 1960s and 1970s had contributed to a buildup of long-term inflation expectations.
Nevertheless, continuing to expand their balance sheets in 2021 and to keep rates near zero even as inflation soared and economies recovered from the depths of the Covid-19 crisis now looks to have helped sow the seeds of current turmoil, critics say. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, a consistent Fed critic since early 2021, blasted US central bank forecasters’ March expectations for inflation as “The Fed’s preferred price gauge rose an annual 6.3% in April. The median estimate of Fed officials in March was for 4.3% for 2022. Fresh forecasts are due Wednesday.Lagarde and her colleagues are now on course to raise rates by a quarter point in July and 50 basis points in September.
May their greed line their coffins
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