It’s not an easy call. The S&P 500 energy sector is already up around 46% this year and monetary policy tightening around the world has bolstered the chances of a global recession that could curtail energy demand.
Few also see any end to the selloff in broader markets, as stubborn inflation boosts expectations for more market-punishing rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Analysts expect third-quarter earnings per share growth for energy companies of 121% compared with the same period a year ago, while those for the broader index excluding energy fall 2.6%, Refinitiv data showed.
US output in 2022 is expected to average 11.75 million bpd, down from a previous estimate of 11.79 million bpd, according to the US Energy Department.