When pessimism abounds andare commonplace, investors can react in one of three ways: reduce risk, stay the course, or go against the crowd.
Since 1926, the S&P 500 has been flat during 12-month periods in which payrolls declined, Chisholm wrote in a February report. She found that when the index fell in the year before job losses began, it typically rose once the cuts actually took place since investors had anticipated the weakness. And the more the S&P 500 slid before those layoffs, the more it rebounded.In other words, the S&P 500's 19% loss in 2022 may have already accounted for future job losses.
Bears may argue that the market's declines in the past year didn't price in weakness for jobs, the economy, or earnings, and instead reflect aValuations clearly contracted as interest rates rose, though the extent to which that hurt stocks can be debated. As for the market's current multiples, Chisholm said she isn't concerned since they're near their long-term averages at about 18.5x forward earnings and 20x trailing earnings.
Lastly, inflation has peaked and is expected to slide throughout the year, which Chisholm said will give much-needed relief to consumers — especially when considering that they've gotten raises in the past year to adjust for the higher prices.
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