One of the bond market’s most reliable gauges of impending U.S. recessions plunged further below zero into triple-digit negative territory on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pointed to the need for higher interest rates and a possible reacceleration in the pace of hikes.The widely followed spread between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields plunged to minus 104.6 basis points during New York afternoon trading and headed for a level not seen since Sept.
Meanwhile, traders boosted the odds of a half-of-a-percentage point rate hike on March 22, to 70.5% from 31.4% a day ago, and saw a growing chance that the fed funds rate will end the year between 5.5% and 5.75% or higher, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The 2s/10s spread first went below zero last April, only to un-invert again for a few months before dropping further into negative territory since June and July. It is just one of more than 40 Treasury-market spreads that were below zero as of Monday, but is regarded as one of the few with a reasonably reliable track record of predicting recessions, albeit with a one-year lag on average and at least one false signal in the past.
You think Dems will learn a lesson about NOT printing trillions of dollars which results in massive and continuous inflation? Probably not.
At the wholesale level there is zero inflation, not sure where the fed is getting this.
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