Canada's Housing Market Correction 'Has Yet to Run Its Course'

The Bottom Is In Sight, But Canada’s Housing Market Correction Hasn’t Run Its CourseAlthough it’s starting to slow, Canada’s housing market correction “has yet to run its course,” with roughly half of the anticipated national price decline still to come.that resale activity, which is currently at “recession levels,” is expected to hit bottom sometime this spring.

As a result, Hogue believes a bottom will form in the coming months; Ontario and the Atlantic provinces will lead, while the Prairies and Quebec will lag.Another reason the bottom may be just months away is the cessation of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada . Hogue predicts that the BoC’s January hike of 0.25 bps was the final increase of the cycle. Once that sentiment is more widely held, the housing market will begin to stabilize.

“Lingering affordability issues will stand in the way of a quick market rebound and a material easing in buyers’ budget constraints,” Hogue said.The report calls for a 15.5% peak-to-trough decline in the national RPS Home Price Index. Currently down 7.1% from the 2022 peak, a further 8% drop is expected from Q4 2022 to Q3 2023. On a provincial level, peak-to-trough declines range from 18.6% in Ontario and 16.3% in BC, to 6.3% in Alberta and 5.4% in Newfoundland and Labrador.

However, if the pace of homebuilding doesn’t pick up across Canada, “deep supply shortages” could be on the horizon, Hogue cautioned.There were fewer than 142K homes for sale in Canada in January, and construction levels have been “underwhelming” as of late. Although housing completions have risen nationally over the past three years – 220K units were completed in 2022 versus fewer than 190K units in 2019 – it’s not nearly enough to meet demand, which has been fuelled by booming immigration.

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