Fed refocuses on job market as financial risks ease and inflation remains high

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Federal Reserve officials counting on slower U.S. job growth to help them in their fight to lower high inflation will receive key employment and wage data on Friday, the last such download before their next interest rate decision in early May.

Economists anticipate what from the Fed's perspective will be a middling result for March, a month marred by the largest bank failures since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, events that for a brief time at least shifted policymakers' main attention from inflation to financial stability.

The PCE price index was rising 5% annually as of February, or 4.6% when volatile food and energy prices were excluded, too high for the Fed's liking and with improvement coming only slowly in recent months. Fed officials would never say their aim is to cause a recession. But they've also been blunt that, as it stands, there are too many jobs chasing too few workers, a recipe for wage and price increases that could start to reinforce each other the longer the situation persists.

 

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The next interest rate hike in May will be blamed on a hot jobs market.

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