Why a closer look at stock-market performance reveals a 'very muddled picture'

Stocks remain off to a winning start in 2023 despite rising recession fears and uncertainty around the stability of the banking sector. Take a closer look, however, it’s clear the market is far from moving in lockstep.

Instead, the S&P 500 has demonstrated a high degree of dispersion, a measure of the variation in returns within an index or a market. Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, information technology SP500.45 and communication services SP500.50 led the way in March, up 10.9% and 10.4%, respectively, thanks to robust gains in megacap growth and tech stocks. At the other end of the spectrum, the financials sector SP500.40 fell 9.7% after several regional bank failures undermined confidence in the financial system.

Since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Arbeter has observed a fast rotation of capital into defensive stocks such as consumer staples SP500.30 , utilities SP500.551010 and healthcare SP500.35 . The yield on the 2-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD02Y , which is particularly sensitive to monetary policy expectations, fell to the lowest level since September on Wednesday, after topping 5% and rising to its highest level since 2007 in early March.

The healthcare sector, which got hit hard between mid-December and late-March and lost over 8.4% during this period, bounced back 3.1% over the past five days.

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