Global stock trading was muted as investors awaited U.S. inflation data that may shed light on the Federal Reserve's next policy move.
U.S. headline inflation is expected to slow, with the core reading forecast to ease both on a monthly and yearly basis, supporting market expectations that the Fed will deliver one more rate hike before a pause and pivot to easier policy in the second half of the year. “Markets have recently taken the view that the Fed needs to ensure stability in the financial system. That means easing back on rate hikes which could topple the economy,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. “However, the reason why rates have been going up so fast over the past 12 months is down to rising inflation, so today's update will still matter to the Fed.”
Swap contracts are pricing in about three-in-four odds of another quarter-point Fed hike next month. Traders predict U.S. rates will peak around 5 per cent, with policymakers then cutting by at least 50 basis points by year-end.
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