and the job market remains resilient — hinting at the possibility an actual recession could have already come and gone.
"The issue is this has become the most widely anticipated recession ever, which raises the question whether a 'rolling recession' has already passed," Lee said in a Friday note.near-20% rally from its mid-October low, with yet another bullish technical signal suggesting that the year-long bear market has flipped to a brand new bull market.
"The S&P 500 has now spent more than 25 weeks above its 200-week moving average. Since 1950, there are zero instances of the S&P 500 making a new low once it has recovered above the 200-week moving average and spent at least 15 weeks there," he explained. The signal has a 100% win ratio, according to Lee, with one-, three-, six-, and 12-month returns being positive every single time the S&P 500 passed the milestone of remaining above its 200-week moving average for 25 consecutive weeks.
"October 12, 2022 is the low for this cycle," he said, adding that his views have been strengthened by other bullish signals like
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Airline stocks shares fall on American’s so-so 1Q outlookAirline stocks tumbled Wednesday after American Airlines issued a lackluster outlook that appeared to amplify fears that travel demand, which has surged for the past year, could finally be slowing in the face of inflation and economic uncertainty.
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