The S&P 500 is top-heavy with tech. Here's what that says about future stock-market returns.

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The S&P 500's gains are led by megacap tech stocks. That has investors fearing for future returns.

The 2023 rally by the S&P 500 index is being led by megacap tech-related stocks, whose weighting in the index is at a historically high level. That’s sparked a lot of worry about the durability of the bounce.

The S&P 500 SPX is up more than 7% so far in 2023, after last year’s 19.4% slide. The top 10 stocks hold a 29% weight in the index, and are responsible for around 70% of year-todate performance, said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, in a Thursday note. Why is that? For one, unlike during the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, the current crop of tech giants largely produce real earnings and strong cash flow, Mayfield said.

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