The discount retailer’s shares fell 20% Thursday after the company slashed its earnings forecast for the year. Dollar General now expects sales to rise between 1% and 2% and expects earnings to fall 8% year over year. That news is a giant red flag for the broader US economy. Put simply: We already knew that American consumers were hurting because other retailers’ results — including Macy’s, Costco and Target — showed consumers pulling back on discretionary items.
That’s left economists and commentators to play a recession guessing game for the past year and a half, parsing every earnings report and unemployment data point to try to anticipate when the downturn will hit, how long it will last, and how badly it will hurt. Throughout it all, two powerful forces have defied predictions that the economy was about to stumble: Consumer spending and the strongest labor market in half a century.
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