Behind Prime Day's rosy headlines are mixed signals for back-to-school. These retail stocks will fare the best

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The bargain bonanza inspired by Prime Day last week is the first sign that back-to-school shopping is underway. Here's the early read.

The bargain bonanza inspired by Prime Day last week is the first sign that back-to-school shopping is underway, especially for consumers in the Southeast who have children starting school in a few weeks. Consumers are entering the second busiest shopping season of the year feeling battered and bruised, but spending is still expected to rise compared with last year as parents stock up on notebooks, sneakers and sweaters, according to several recent consumer surveys.

Where shoppers are going In the JLL poll, Walmart , Target and Amazon were among the top three retailers parents planned to shop, by a wide margin. Other retailers named were Old Navy , Kohl's , Staples, Macy's and Office Depot. Costco and Dollar General rounded out the top 10. But Stifel Financial said its consumer polling, conducted in mid-July, showed consumers actually plan to spend 19% less this year than they did last year.

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