With the soft-landing narrative for the world’s biggest economy gaining traction, the majority of 331 respondents expect losses for S&P 500 Index to be contained to less than 10% should yields on the 10-year Treasury resume their climb and hit 4.5%. That would allow the US equities benchmark to hold on to some of its 18% year-to-date gains.
With the Federal Reserve prepared to keep borrowing costs elevated until inflation is on a convincing path toward the US central bank’s 2% target, there’s more room for yields to rise even further. Though strategists expect any march higher to be capped near 4.5%. Such a yield on the 10-year would drop the S&P 500 Index year-end target of HSBC Holdings Plc’s US equity strategy team to 4,500 from 4,600 — leaving the stock gauge with a 17% gain in 2023.
Meanwhile, the correlation between stocks and bonds has been positive since early 2022 as markets braced for the Fed’s tightening campaign to quell soaring inflation. Just over 50% of survey takers expect that relationship to turn negative by the end of this year, reverting to the long-term trend of this century.
That said, most MLIV survey respondents see real estate and technology as most at risk from a 4.5% Treasury yield, while more than half said banks will be the biggest winners. A downturn for technology stocks would be significant with the Nasdaq 100 Index soaring 42% so far in 2023.
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