A real estate developer is warning of a"Black Swan" event within the next calendar year due to the housing market's present volatility.
Sean Terry, a former United States Marine and the founder of Flip2Freedom said that the combination of elevated housing prices and high interest rates might lead to the Federal Reserve advertently or not wanting the market to crash because it would lead to better future affordability.from 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent—the most significant level in 22 years and the 11th hike of the past 12 U.S. central bank policy meetings, beginning in March 2022.
A"For Sale" sign in front of a home in Arlington, Virginia, on August 22, 2023. Sales of homes in the U.S. ticked down in July as elevated mortgage rates and limited housing supply held buyers back.Black Swan events occur when circumstances may have been inevitable and unforeseen by various prognosticators, though in retrospect, signs of major catastrophes were evident all along.
Terry compared the current market to 2008, which preceded the Great Recession, and the major market crash that led to government bailouts of major banks. More banks could be consolidated by larger ones, he added, to bolster banks"too big to fail" and make them even bigger—including JPMorgan Chase.and sold to JPMorgan Chase after becoming the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history.
"That came about due to population and job growth that outpaced new-home construction," Yun said."Then, the shortage worsened during the first year of the COVID-19 real estate boom as many desired to take advantage of the historically low interest rates. The shortage intensified when mortgage rates shot up due to homeowners who have been unwilling to list and give away their locked-in low rates.
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