The portion of people out of work and looking for a job rose to 4.3% in the three months through July, the highest since September 2021, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. The report also showed average earnings excluding bonuses rose 7.8% from a year earlier, maintaining the fastest pace since the series began in 2001.
The pound extended gains after the data, rising as much as 0.2% to $1.2530 before paring the advance. Private sector regular wage growth, which the BOE is watching for signs of persistent inflation, slid to 8.1% from 8.2%. The focus will now turn inflation data next week. The BOE is forecasting a temporary uptick to 7.1% in August before price growth resumes its decline toward the 2% target.
The BOE expects unemployment to rise steadily to 5% by 2026, but a key question is how far it has to rise before the labor market is cool enough to take the heat out of wages, which have been bid up by workers to trying to keep up with the rising cost of living. Bloomberg Economics thinks that rate is higher than the 4.25% currently assumed by the central bank.
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