Analysis-Soaring Treasury yields threaten long-term performance of US stocks

NEW YORK - Soaring U.S. Treasury yields are further boosting the appeal of bonds over stocks, deepening an already painful equity selloff while threatening to weigh on equity performance over the long term.

The latest spurt higher in yields, which began this summer, has taken its toll on stock investors. Although the S&P 500 is up about 9% for the year, it has slid over 8% since late July, when it peaked for the year. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed about a full percentage point since then. Historically, the S&P 500 has shown average 12-month returns of less than 6% when the ERP falls below its average, Lynch said. In contrast, when the market’s ERP surpasses that level, forward returns approach 12%.

As it stands, S&P 500 companies are expected to increase earnings by 12.1% in 2024, according to LSEG IBES. “My message would be don’t get overly negative on equities just because you have more competition from cash and Treasuries, because that is historically the norm,” Lerner said.

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