Q4, 2023 broad US market seasonal situation

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Kitco News' contributed commentary features articles and opinions from some of the top experts in the gold industry.

This article discusses one diverse component of the broad global markets; the US S&P 500. The market has some poor underpinnings that we routinely keep track of in NFTRH and are beyond the scope of this public article. Also beyond the scope are macro risk indicators, including the US dollar and its relationship with the Gold/Silver ratio.

I am no Elliott Wave TA, but I would gather that if this were to be a more routine correction it would have corrected A-B-C down and bottomed with the early October test of the uptrending SMA 200.

However, SPX is still in a clear downtrend channel from the July high at this point. So if the seasonal is going to be more than a quick trade, follow through here or more downside grinding are needed. Regardless, due to many factors beyond the scope of this article, I expect a potentially severe bear market to begin in H1, 2024.

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