The first few decades of technology innovation have been characterized by rapid growth and quick profits based on low headcounts and low capital outlays.If you have doubts, just look atTesla is 15 years old, and despite its considerable struggles and internal and external dramas, Elon Musk's electric carmaker remains a Silicon Valley darling and is widely admired in the traditional auto industry.
But what Elon knows is largely ignored by Tesla's most enthusiastic supporters, and it's now broken free and appears to be moving menacingly toward Uber and Lyft as those high-expectation startups IPO. I could go on. Apple is having a tough time figuring out what it's next awesome product will be. The Apple Watch has a done OK, but it's no iPhone. The much-discussed Apple Car project has reportedly changed from an actual car into a self-driving software project; meanwhile Alphabet's Waymo has spent a decade on the problem and is just now getting self-driving cars on the road in a commercial application.
Back to Uber and Lyft. Their balance sheets also enjoy lots of revenue coming in, but the businesses quickly convert a growing topline into a ruinous bottom line because there's an insatiable need for more drivers. That end of the business isn't rightsized for anything but the most robust, densely urban environments; an Uber driver outside a place like New York or San Francisco probably can't get enough rides to think of the job as more than a short-term gig or a stopgap wage.
If Tesla's experience is a guide, the ride is gonna be rough. Another example, from my own life. I'm writing this story at home at 9 a.m. on a Thursday, using a high-speed internet connection and Insider's content-management system. I'll file it, photos and all, entirely digitally, all from the comfort of my home. The story could be good to go in less than half an hour.