projected a strong year for global stocks, with the TSX lagging early before a late revival. So far, so good
As legendary investor, Sir John Templeton famously said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” Recent examples: After 2020′s rocket-ship recovery from lockdown lows – themselves born in despair – 2021′s sentiment warmed unusually fast. Frothy pockets emerged in special-purpose acquisition company IPOs and crypto, with the latter spurring Canada’s 2021 groundbreaking bitcoin ETF approval.
U.S. and global confidence surveys broadly show brighter outlooks. But skepticism remains, especially in Europe after its EU parliamentary elections. will happen and, hence, what markets are pricing – a sentiment signal. And the consensus is always wrong. Look deeper. Of 54 professional S&P 500 forecasts entering 2024, 40 clustered between a loss of 2.9 per cent and a 9-per-cent gain, while nine envisioned declines worse than 3 per cent.foresaw returns exceeding 17.1 per cent. Now? Despite some firms’ sunnier outlooks, still none expect 17 per cent or greater. Euphoria? Hardly.
Consider initial public offerings, too. I have long said IPO actually means “It’s probably overpriced.” Companies do IPOs when prices are best for sellers –buyers. Heavy issuance usually follows a big market rise, when recent returns boost spirits and elevate demand.