, it's now up for debate again whether Fed officials will initiate a rate cutting cycle at the September FOMC meeting.
He continues by stating the Fed views the risks as"more balanced" in its dual mandate encompassing its 2% inflation target and US employment. But I do think the market is looking at it, saying, 'well, we see downside risks much more on the employment side than we see upside risks on the inflation side, and they're putting their money to play accordingly.'"But the likelihood of a September cut seems to be increasing.
I don't, uh what I would say is that I thought Powell came as close yesterday as he could to saying September without making some promise that someone could hold up later if for whatever reason they decided not to do it.Um But nevertheless, I mean, if you look at the policy statement that came out at 2 p.m. sometimes when the fed is ready to cut rates but hasn't, you know, it isn't doing it at that meeting.
Just I'm curious, you know, investors looking at this economic data ism manufacturing, Nick and the unemployment measure sank to 43.Uh I'm just curious, Nick, when you kind of, you know, the economist you read and talk to, if you heard any kind of feedback on that.A lot more ism, yes, I realized this employment Subindex uh was very weak today.Um but it's, it's just, it's one data point that I think is quickly gonna be overtaken by a bigger data point tomorrow.
Uh they, you know, there, there's a question to ask right now, which is where are upside inflation risks going to come from in an economy where the vu the vacancy to unemployed worker ratio uh is fallen to where it was before the pandemic.So turnover is low to the extent people, you're worried that people are gonna bid up wages by changing jobs.You had a fairly cool uh employment cost index report on Wednesday.
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