Strategist Greg Valliere says Trump and Trudeau's rocky relationship in 2017 could worsen in the event of a second Trump presidency.
“Tariff concerns have been a drag on EU equities,” the research team lead by Emmanuel Cau wrote in a note Wednesday. They estimate that a full-blown trade war could result in a high single-digit drag on earnings per share growth. A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. basket of European companies expected to be negatively impacted by US tariffs is down 11% this year, while the pan-European Stoxx 600 Index is up 8.7%.
While a Trump win risks adding to the pressure on European stocks following a shaky start to the third quarter earnings season, the Barclays strategists note potential for a rebound if Kamala Harris wins. Sectors including clean and renewable energy would stand to benefit, having been impacted by rising odds of a Trump win.
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