Investing.com -- In the wake of recent policy shifts and macroeconomic headwinds, Morgan Stanley analysts introduced a Bull-Bear Framework to help investors better navigate potential investment opportunities in China's e-commerce sector.
As such, analysts acknowledge that the “3D Journey” of debt, demographics, and deflation remains bumpy, especially as consumption stimulus measures remain underwhelming. “Given low visibility around the consumption recovery pace in 2025 and 2026, we believe a Bull-Bear Framework could help investors to better navigate potential investment opportunities in the sector,” analysts led by Eddy Wang said in a note.: In this scenario, Morgan Stanley predicts that China’s e-commerce sector could grow by 14% YoY in 2025 and 13% YoY in 2026.
In its base-case scenario, the Wall Street firm projects the Chinese government will provide a fiscal stimulus of Rmb 2 trillion in 2024 and Rmb 2-3 trillion in 2025, leading to nominal GDP growth of 3.9% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026.