Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? That’s the question investors are asking as the S&P 500 heads into the close of the year with a fresh record high coming into view. Signs of cooling inflation have fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, helping extend a rally that has seen the S&P 500 gain over 9% since late October. The index is now up 17% for the year and about 6% from its record closing high from January 2022.
Whether it can reach those levels in coming weeks depends in-part on how convinced investors are that the U.S. economy is on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed brings down inflation without badly damaging growth. So far, the economy has proven resilient in the face of tighter monetary policy, though some measures of employment and consumer demand have softened. Rising valuations and still-elevated Treasury yields pose another obstacle. Other factors, however, including historical seasonal trends, could support more gains
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