Investors kicked off a shortened week in subdued mood on Monday with stock benchmarks steady near last week’s lifetime highs as looming U.S. inflation data provides the next milestone in the summer rate cut narrative.
Crude oil prices rose on concerns over tighter global supply brought about by escalating conflicts in the Middle East, and attacks on energy infrastructure in the war between Russia and Ukraine. On Wall Street, where stock indexes also hit record highs last week, the S&P 500 on Friday ended with its biggest weekly percentage gain of 2024 after the U.S. Federal Reserve stuck with projections for three rate cuts by year’s end.
Many markets are closed for Easter on Friday, when the PCE data is due for release, so the full reaction will have to wait until next week. Europe has its own inflation tests with consumer price data out from France, Italy, Belgium and Spain, ahead of the overall EU CPI report on April 3. Even a shift away from super-easy policies by the Bank of Japan could not dent the dollar, as investors assumed it was not the start of a series of hikes and futures imply a rate of just 20 basis points by year end.
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