Worried about a hawkish Fed, over-valued stocks, teetering debt piles, volatile currencies, cliffhanger elections or rancorous geopolitics? Relax and don’t over-think it.
One should track top global stocks and the other equivalent corporate bonds, both hedged to domestic currency.So reckons JPMorgan’s long-term investment strategists Jan Loeys and Alexander Wise, who dub their favored approach KISS, or “Keep it Simple, Stupid,” after the long-standing design principle on avoiding complexity where possible.
The JPMorgan team acknowledges that short-term trading and market timing by hedge funds or other active players are critical to market efficiency and liquidity and can make big killings. But by so quickly arbitraging away market pricing anomalies before most investors can even spot them, there’s not much juice left for much of the market.
According to HFR hedge fund research, the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index has underperformed S&P 500 total returns in all but one of the last 10 years. Acknowledging the pain for stock-picking funds trying to beat passive indexes now dominated by Big Tech megacaps, Boston-based value investor GMO earlier this year showed how almost three quarters of large cap “blend managers” underperformed the S&P 500 last year and 90% of them lagged over the decade.
Total returns on the Bloomberg Global Aggregate bond index that excludes government bonds, for example, have been 50% since the index’s inception in 2010.
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