Morning bid: Earnings hurdle cleared - CPI fence up next

Wall Street and world stock markets have cleared the first-quarter corporate earnings season comfortably enough to be back stalking record highs, but macro markets don't want to budge much further until they see this week's U.S. inflation update.

Despite the bumpier U.S. CPI readings through the first quarter, one-year ahead inflation expectations in the NY Fed survey stayed constant at 3% through the first three months of the year. The University of Michigan's 1-year outlook, however, jumped to 3.5% this month from 3.2% in April - even as consumer sentiment fell sharply.

With new bank lending in China falling more than expected in April, and broad credit growth hitting a record low, pressure for more stimulus to support the economy remains intense.China's finance ministry said it will this week start the long-awaited sales of 1 trillion yuan of long-term treasury bonds, proceeds from which Beijing hopes to use to help spur key sectors.

World stocks were flat more generally, with Tokyo off a touch as a slightly weaker yen mostly held the line. But with the Q1 earnings season petering out, it is not hard to see why stocks are back near record highs. S&P500 firms are now tracking annual profit growth of some 7.4% for the quarter - higher than expectations at the start of the year. Excluding the energy sector, that pace is now in double digits and estimates for the equivalent quarter next year are as high as 15%.

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