Adam Boulton: The polling industry should be shut down for being useless if the Tories win general election

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Recent predictions suggest a Labour majority ranging from 165 to 200 and 382. These are enormous differences - but all point to a massive Tory defeat.

Have you ever taken part in an opinion poll? I was about to say that I haven't and then a dim memory surfaced from decades ago of a nice lady with a clipboard asking me questions in Pangbourne, Berkshire. Whether your opinions have been sampled or not, you will have found it impossible not to see coverage of polls during this election campaign.

Instead we can see that Labour has been consistently ahead of the Conservatives since the winter of 2021, around the time news emerged of Boris Johnson's Partygate scandal. That lead widened following Liz Truss's brief premiership in the autumn of 2022 and has stayed at about 20% ever since. Sustained leads of this kind in aggregated 'polls of polls' are unprecedented and record-breaking.

 

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