This year there’s going to be an unheralded changing of the guard in central banks around the world, including two new incumbents at the SA Reserve Bank, 11 at the European Central Bank and two new Governors on the US Federal Reserve Board. This high stakes game of musical chairs is taking place at a time when the pros and cons of central bank independence are under the spotlight, up for heated debate and, in some corners, under attack.
In Europe, 11 members of the European Central Bank Governing Council, six of whom are members of the Executive Board, including President Mario Draghi, will be changing places during a year when elections take place and major politicking is likely. This means the stakes are high for central bank independence, given the ECB is the only effective pan-European policy-making body
The challenges Kyanyago has confronted during his time at the helm of the bank highlight the much wider ambit to which central bank powers have extended post the crisis, with many central banks now responsible for financial stability and bank supervision, as well as monetary policy. The deep debate and research that have gone into these considerations have been triggered by the fact that the monetary policy environment has changed unalterably since the 1970s. In the decades before the 2008 crisis, the key priority was to bring inflation down to a level where it wouldn’t be noticed by the public. Central banks successfully did that, led by the US, where consumer inflation came off its 13.9% high in 1979 and fell to 3.8% just three years later.
Their conclusion is that the choice of the inflation target should be within the purview of the government and the central bank should be operationally independent in its efforts to meet that target.
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