Pumpjacks drawing out oil and gas from wells near Calgary, Alta. as the near-term inflationary impact of the sector has subsided and global supply seems to be ample from both a liquids and product perspective, there is a structural shift in the progression of energy cycles that is increasingly misunderstood by the market.
While there are many mechanisms at work that limit the downside for oil, the upside volatility is likely fairly muted for the commodity. Much of the geopolitical risk premium that investors are looking for is extremely short-lived, with the exception of COVID-19, though it only took about a year to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
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