The Market is Pricing In Another 'Warm Winter' for Natural Gas

via AEGIS Hedging The Winter ’24/’25 Nov-Mar natural gas strip is only 30 cents above where Winter ’23/’24 settled. Does this make sense Just over two weeks ago, Winter ’24/’25 was trading at $3.34, but now at $2.80, it seems like the peak-winter risk premium has evaporated, and the market is pricing in another anomalously warm winter. The chart above shows that prices gradually eroded last year, settling for November 2023 at $3.64, but slipping all the way to $1.65 in March.

84 Tcf Mostly balanced market, but trending looser with surging supply and no new demand growth Supply surge in 3Q and 4Q 2023 No new LNG demand growth Third warmest winter Nov-Mar in terms of Heating Degree Days HDDs Freeport LNG issues in 1Q 2024 In summary, the supply-demand balance and risk factors are favorable compared to last year’s. Therefore, it’s puzzling that this winter’s prices are only 30 cents higher than last year’s.

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