A strong dollar under US president-elect Donald Trump could wreck returns in emerging market bonds, say investors, driving further outflows from a sector already hit by a lengthy period of high interest rates in developed economies. Investors have pulled nearly $5bn overall from funds investing in dollar and local currency denominated emerging market bonds this month as of mid-November, taking this year’s total net outflows to more than $20bn, according to data from JPMorgan.
Brazil’s central bank picked up the pace of rate rises this month while the South African Reserve Bank struck a cautious tone on policy even as it cut rates this week from a twenty-year high in real terms. If protectionism worldwide “does become inflationary, you would expect that globally, central banks will react”, Lesetja Kganyago, the bank’s governor said at a press conference following the decision.